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Backtest reference, May 2022 to May 2025.

1,015 trades · 2022-05-02 to 2025-04-30

These are the numbers from the rule-based backtest of Aurum's deployed strategy: 15-minute opening-range breakout on GC and SI, target 3R, trail at 1 ATR. Once live signals begin shipping, that ledger will replace this page. Until then, this is the honest reference.

Profit Factor
2.18
backtest
Avg R / trade
+0.50
across 1,015 trades
Max Drawdown
-8.8R
peak to trough
Win Rate
47.8%
at R:R 3.0

Cumulative R, trade by trade

0R127R254R381R508R2022-05-022023-11-152025-04-30

Final cumulative: +507.8R. At 1% risk per trade, that translates to roughly 508% account growth over the 3-year period, before fees and slippage.

Year by year

PeriodTradesWin rateAvg RPFMax DDCum R
202225446.9%+0.512.18-6.4R+128.36R
202329946.2%+0.452.05-8.8R+134.08R
202433247.0%+0.462.05-7.8R+153.59R
202513055.4%+0.712.87-7.9R+91.79R

Quarter by quarter

QuarterTradesWin rateAvg RPFMax DD
2022 Q26445.3%+0.431.97-5.7R
2022 Q39643.8%+0.482.09-6.4R
2022 Q49451.1%+0.582.42-4.8R
2023 Q17951.9%+0.813.28-5.3R
2023 Q27938.0%+0.211.43-8.8R
2023 Q36651.5%+0.301.72-7.4R
2023 Q47544.0%+0.442.00-4.7R
2024 Q17350.7%+0.572.38-5.0R
2024 Q28848.9%+0.492.21-5.0R
2024 Q38151.8%+0.732.83-4.0R
2024 Q49037.8%+0.101.19-7.8R
2025 Q110153.5%+0.632.62-7.9R
2025 Q22962.1%+0.983.85-3.0R

Every quarter in the 3-year backtest closed positive on average R.

Walk-forward, out-of-sample

Parameters were selected on each train window and then tested on the next unseen window. The strategy survives the out-of-sample test with an average profit factor of 1.75, which is consistent with the in-sample backtest.

Train windowTest windowTest tradesTest PFTest avg R
2022-05/2023-052023-05/2023-111401.02+0.01
2022-11/2023-112023-11/2024-051612.01+0.51
2023-05/2024-052024-05/2024-111571.82+0.45
2023-11/2024-112024-11/2025-051912.13+0.56

By symbol

SymbolTradesWin rateAvg RPFAvg winnerAvg loser
GC58148.7%+0.562.33+2.00R-0.81R
SI43446.5%+0.421.97+1.85R-0.82R

Last 20 trades in the backtest window

Entry dateSymSideEntryStopTargetR
2025-04-30SIlong32.9732.9632.98+3.00R
2025-04-30GCshort3310.203296.503284.70+3.00R
2025-04-29GCshort3324.003327.833311.30-0.91R
2025-04-29SIshort33.0233.0133.00+1.00R
2025-04-25GCshort3292.103283.503267.20+3.00R
2025-04-24GClong3330.103329.073333.20+3.00R
2025-04-23GClong3344.403354.103393.00+0.60R
2025-04-22GClong3484.503475.903513.60-0.89R
2025-04-21GCshort3370.003369.733362.10+0.10R
2025-04-17SIlong32.5832.5432.71-1.00R
2025-04-17GClong3326.403324.103333.30-1.00R
2025-04-16GClong3262.003261.353266.65+3.00R
2025-04-14GCshort3227.103227.353224.55+3.00R
2025-04-11GClong3198.603204.303226.20+0.62R
2025-04-10GCshort3115.203118.303105.90+3.00R
2025-04-09GClong3026.603054.403074.00+1.76R
2025-04-09SIshort29.2529.3628.95-1.00R
2025-04-08GClong2996.502996.732998.80+0.30R
2025-04-08SIlong29.9830.1830.29+3.00R
2025-04-07GClong2971.802968.402982.00+3.00R

Strategy specification

Universe
GC, SI
Setup
15-min opening-range breakout
Risk:Reward target
3.0
Trailing stop
1 × ATR(14)
ATR period
14 bars
Bar size
5 minutes
Frequency limit
1 trade per symbol per day
Data source
Databento CME GLBX.MDP3
About these numbers. The backtest assumes perfect fills at the strategy's intended entry, stop, and target prices. Commission, slippage, and execution latency are not modeled. Real-world performance will be lower than backtest by some amount; the gap depends on broker, account size, and execution discipline. Read the full risk disclosure. Generated 5/31/2026, 5:42:58 AM.